As Ive discussed in recent market commentary, we see signs of a rotation into larger cap names and also into some of the laggard stocks. This is a clear indication of late stage market action. While we dont see an end of the bull market on the horizon over the near term, a 4-8% correction (give or take a few percent) is likely looming. We have recently added some short positions to the portfolio to partially offset risk from our long exposure. Additionally, we have shifted to a tighter than normal loss cutting policy, giving stocks in our portfolio little room to move against us.

The market may indeed keep crawling its way higher however, if the rally contains less and less participation, it will become increasing more difficult to make money. Therefore, our recommendation is to take smaller than normal positions, tighten stops, and nail down profits when you have them.

Mark Minervini

The engine behind this bull market are low interest rates driven by economic weakness. Bull markets are born out of recessions and this one is no different than many past bulls.

Despite recent relative strength in home building stocks, the housing market is still depressed as there remains an oversupply of homes as well as an abundant supply of foreclosures. Commodity prices are on the rise again however, core inflation and wage inflation remain weak. The employment picture has not yet improved enough to allow the Fed to normalize rates. Therefore, the proverbial punchbowl remains on the table with additional re-fills likely.

Bottom line: There is little competition for stocks.

The Feds commitment to stimulus is likely to persist throughout 2011. The extension of the Bush tax cuts and the 2% cut in the employee payroll tax rate and a 2-year extension of depreciation incentives for business investment is also a form of stimulus. The above coincides with a favorable election cycle period and a market that is trading at a reasonable multiple when the current interest rate environement in considered.

Certainly, the fundamental tailwinds remain strong. More importantly, our longs continue to work and the market refuses to give up much ground. Therefore, we continue to stick with our plan and add new names as they emerge on a stock-by-stock basis.

The big question is: how far out is the market looking forward and when will it cease discounting the positive side of the coin? The answer: no one knows. This is why regardless of how great all the rhetoric sounds, we adhere to strategy.

To put it in simple terms, all the statistics, analysts opinions and pundit predictions on Wall Street wont change the fact that we sell our stocks when they stop us out and we stop buying stocks when they cease to set-up constructively. In my 30 years as a stock trader, I have learned that this is by far more important than opinions and forcasts, including mine.

Until then, we continue to trade the best SEPA situations as we remain on a buy signal, and the party continues.

Mark Minervini

So here is what happened when I violated one of my rules. In December, I looked for low priced stocks that really tanked due to tax selling. I thought I found an interesting company called Constar International Inc. (CNST), a manufacturer of plastic containers. The stock traded as high as $20 a share back in April and had dropped below $2 a share in December. I thought that was a pretty good drop which I assumed was due to tax selling, possibly making it a great buy. So I looked further into the stock. The company had $1.42 in cash per share, and was trading way below the reported book value of $2.48 per share. But there was one little hitch; the company had debt, a lot of debt for its size. Its debt to equity ratio was stratospheric.

But I thought, I am just buying it for the very short term, the tax selling rebound, so the debt shouldn’t mean anything (first mistake). I bought a bunch around $2 a share on December 28. The first week of January, the stock traded between 1.80 and 2.00, and I kept waiting for it to pop (second mistake, if the trade doesn’t work in a reasonable number of days, get out). So on January 11, I checked my portfolio and noticed that it was down big time, even though the market was up at the time. I searched down my list of stocks and discovered that Constar had plunged by almost a buck from a previous close of 1.75 to 79 cents. That’s a drop of 55% in one day! I scrambled to find the cause of the drop and eventually discovered that the company had filed for bankruptcy.

So in exactly two weeks, I lost around 60% on that one stock, all because I violated my one primary rule, choose stocks with low or no debt. Yes, I’ll probably miss out on plenty of rising stocks with lots of debt, but I will have less downside risk, and less of a chance of getting downside shocks from bankruptcies.

The takeaway is, if you have a stock trading system that works, be disciplined and don’t waiver from your own rules. In my case, I had plenty of other stocks to choose from. As a matter of fact, WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has several lists of debt free stocks, including Debt Free Stocks Selling At Or Near Cash, High Cash No Debt High Yield Stocks, No Debt High Yield Stocks, No Debt Low Price To Cash Flow Stocks, and Stocks Selling Near Cash Per Share and Debt Free.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL.

By Stockerblog.com

Most analysts say that pharmaceutical stocks and consumer staples are the best places to put your money during rising rates. But there is one stock that will benefit big time from higher interest that doesn’t fall into either of these sectors. The stock is Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Why Apple? First of all, it has no long-term debt. Second, the company has a huge amount of cash. No wonder why I referred to Apple as a money market fund a few months ago. Although many articles report that it has about $51 billion in cash, that number includes $25.391 billion in what Apple’s accountants consider long-term marketable securities. But Apple does have $11.261 billion in cash and cash equivalent securities plus $14.359 billion in short term marketable securities, for a total of $25.56 billion.

Apple’s weighted average interest rate has been dropping for the last three years, as have rates in general, from 3.44% in 2008, to 1.43% in 2009, to 0.75% for the current year. Of the $25.56 billion in what is essentially cash, total income based on the 0.75% weighted rate is about $191.7 million.

If the rate increased to 3% and assuming the balance remains the same (but it should certainly increase), interest income on effective cash would rise to $766.8 million, and at 5%, the income would be $1.278 billion, or $1.18 in additional earnings per share, currently at $15.15 per share. This additional interest is a pre-tax number, but based on the companys effective tax rate, additional earnings would still be close to a dollar a share.

Plus there are no other expenses incurred in generating this income. No salaries, no capital expenditures of manufacturing equipment, no purchase of raw materials, no office space rental, no nothing; just some electrons on a computer screen. Talk about easy money.

If you want to check out the lists of stocks which have a lot of cash, which can be downloaded, sorted, and updated, go to WallStreetNewsNetwork.com.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL.

By Stockerblog.com

1. $20 Gold Pieces for Your Heirs
This is one I heard from a coin dealer, so be very skeptical about this and definitely run it by your accountant. The technique is to buy a bunch of rare $20 Gold Pieces which you will eventually leave to your heirs. When I say rare, I mean $100,000 or $200,000 for a coin. When you pass away, because the coins are still considered currency, they will only be valued at $20 each for estate tax purposes (according to this coin dealer). The coin dealer has other suggestions with these coins (i.e. being paid with them to reduce capital gains, etc.), but I’m even more skeptical about that. (Do you think the coin dealer has a hidden motive by saying this?) Like I said, ask your CPA or tax attorney.

2. Anonymous Donations to Charity
If you have ever wanted to make a totally anonymous donation to a charity (and there are several reasons you may want to) but still want to be able to take a tax deduction, here is what you can do. Go to your local post office and buy some Postal Money Orders. You are allowed up to $1000 per money order. Don’t request more than three at once, otherwise the Post Office will request identification from you. On the money orders, write the name of the charity where it says “Pay to” along with the charity’s address, but leave the part where it says “From” blank. However, on the receipt, which you will keep with your tax records, you can fill in your name as the sender. As for the original, send it in to the charitable organization in a plain envelope and no one will be able to trace it back to you.

3. Worthless Stocks
According to the IRS, “a taxpayer who owns stock that was acquired on the open market for investment and that has declined in value is allowed a deduction for a capital loss in the taxable year in which the stock is sold or exchanged or becomes wholly worthless.” But the big question is “When do they become worthless?” Worthless is kind of a nebulous word. Just because a company declares bankruptcy, doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock stops trading. And I’ve seen several stocks stop trading for a year or two then start up again. If you have the stock in the form of a certificate, there are companies that will buy your old certificates as collectibles. It may not be much, maybe only a dollar, unless the company is in an unusual industry or has an interesting picture on it. The sale might be considered a transaction for capital loss purposes, but you need to ask your advisor.

Please note, if a public company committed accounting fraud (e.g Enron), you cannot deduct the loss as a theft loss. The IRS states that they will disallow such deductions and may impose penalties.

4. Short Selling
If you are a short seller, and you short a lot of stocks that pay dividends, remember that technically you owe and pay the dividends to the owner of the shares that you shorted. Since this is an investment expense, make sure your accountant takes this into consideration.

5. Municipal Bonds from US Territories
For the owners of a diverse portfolio of municipal bonds who live in states with income taxes, remember that if you have any munis from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Guam, the income is exempt from state income taxes. On the Tax Statement Form from brokerage firms, generally all income from municipal bonds are lumped together in the same section. If you live in California, and you own munis from New York, California, Puerto Rico, and Texas, the interest on the California and Puerto Rico bonds are exempt. Occasionally, staff workers at accounting firms may carve out (in this case) just the California interest, and lump all the other interest together, including the Puerto Rico interest, as taxable California income. Of course, it’s always a good idea to check your entire return before you sign it.

You will of course see a lot of other tax saving tip articles this week. A couple things to keep in mind. Many income and deduction adjustments can trigger the AMT. Also, if you expect your income to be much higher next year, take a longer term approach to planning your deductions. As previously mentioned, check any tax techniques, the ones above and any others that you read about, with your tax advisor.

By Stockerblog.com

Guest Article

Overview of bond trading

In the financial and investment market, bonds refer to a type of debt security whereby the issuer of the bond owes the purchaser a debt. Depending on the specific terms of the bond, the issuer is obligated to paying the purchaser interest and/or repays the total principle to the purchaser at a later date. This date is referred to as the maturity day. It is a formal financial contract the borrowed money is repaid with interest included and paid at fixed intervals throughout the life of that contract.

There are numerous types of bonds such as bearer bonds, fixed-rate, and many others. However one of the most common and popular are the municipal bonds which are typically issued by different government agencies such as a city or local governments, state governments, or US territories. The interest that the purchaser of the bond receives is normally exempt from federal and state income taxes.

Overview of stock trading

Even though stock trading is a common terminology, it is actually a misnomer because you really dont trade shares of stock. You purchase them for the purposes of selling them at a profit. In the language of the financial and investment markets, you purchase and sell shares of stock either on the floor of one of the different stock exchanges or online. Additionally, the individual who purchases and sells shares of stocks is referred to as a stock trader.

Advantages and disadvantages bond trading

As with any type of financial and investment instrument, there are certain advantages and disadvantages to trading bonds. Although they tend to be much less aggressive than shares of stocks typically are, they usually provide the investor with a steady income stream. Over the long-term, this means that their performance might be poorer than what you would experience with stocks. Additionally, and like other investments, there are certain risks involved with bond investing.

The two primary advantages are those involving income and ratings. The income advantage is the fact that they are a safer investment than stocks while the rating advantage is a system that enables the investor to gauge a bonds reliability. The key disadvantages involve risk and security. The former is associated with the fact that you cant always trust those systems that rate bonds. The security disadvantage refers to the fact that the bond is only as good as what the borrowers ability to repay the loan is.

Advantages and disadvantages of stock trading

As with trading in the bond market there are certain advantages and disadvantages where stock trading is concerned that you need to be aware of:

The key advantages are:

o better returns on ones investment
o familiarity with the larger companies
o wide range of investment choices

The key disadvantages include:

o cost of shares
o leverage is typically lower than other forms of investments such as the FOREX market
o uptick rules regarding short selling meaning that you have to wait for the price of the stock to increase before you can short sell it

Before I acknowledge all the great articles Ive read over the last week or so, I want wish my readers a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!



2010 was a great year for my wife and I and we have lots to be thankful for. I guess like many folks at this time of year, I find myself being very reflective, which is a good thing in my opinion. Over the last 12 months, I started this blog, met some respected bloggers in the Ottawa area like Canadian Capitalist, Big Cajun Man, Michael James and Larry MacDonald, got married and had an amazing honeymoon, travelled to foreign countries, saw my sister-in-law beat cancer, bought and moved into a new house and watched some of our close friends start families with happy, healthy children. It has been a very rewarding year.

My guess is as good as yours what will happen in 2011 but I must say Im looking forward to what that might be


Over the next couple of weeks, chances are youll see some random posts. I do hope to post Part 2 of my interview with Derek Foster before the calendar turns to January but other than that, no promises. Im going to take some time to unwind, settle into the new place, catch up with family and friends and simply enjoy the holidays.  The red wine is calling now…


Whatever your plans are this holiday season, I hope they keep you safe, happy and healthy. I look forward to sharing more of my financial independence journey with you in 2011.  I think it’s going to be a great year!

Merry Christmas!
Mark

Here are just a few of the excellent articles I read this week.

Tatro has the experience and the track record to write this book and has become extremely successful as a trader. The book features many real life trading examples along with all the related charts. He talks about the three different methodologies for trading: anticipatory, reactionary, and delayed reactionary, and how to determine which is the best strategy for you (you can make money with any of the three strategies). Included is a chapter on how and where to set stop orders, and most important, another chapter on when to take profits. Lots of information is provided on technical trading and trend lines. Of course, to complete the book, a couple of chapters on the psychology of trading.

I have already put a couple of his trading techniques to work, very successfully I might add. I very highly recommend Trade the Trader.

If you’ve been following my blog, you might recall a few months ago I called out to Derek Foster, wondering what Canadas Youngest Retiree has been up to.

Back in September, Derek was a busy guy.  I found out he completed an interview with MoneyTalk host Patricia Lovett-Reid, he was preparing for a speaking engagement in Toronto at Canadian MoneySaver’s Investment Conference, he was putting the finishing touches on his new book and as always, he was helping raise his five kids.  I don’t know about you but that seems more like a year’s worth of work, let alone one month.

For those of you who don’t know who Derek Foster is, here’s a quick bio (photo courtesy of his website):

• Derek was born in Ottawa in 1970.
• Derek was able to become a millionaire and leave the proverbial rat race at the age of 34 by using various investing strategies, many he believes any investor can emulate.
• Derek, ”Canada’s youngest retiree” is a well-known Canadian author and has shared his personal investment experiences and strategies in his National Bestselling Books:
• Stop Working:  Here’s How You Can!
• The Lazy Investor: Start with $50 and no Investment Knowledge
• Money for Nothing: And You Stocks for FREE
• Stop Working Too:  You Still Can!
• *The Idoit Millionaire (*Latest book, Fall 2010)
• When not writing books or giving speaking engagements, Derek spends time with his wife and five children in Ottawa (in my old neighbourhood no less).

For a couple of years now, maybe like some of you, I’ve been both entrigued and somewhat skeptical of Derek’s investment journey.  I’ve read a few of his books (Stop Working:  Here’s How You Can! and The Lazy Investor) and to be honest I’ve been more inspired than skeptical of his success.  Sure, he may have had some great timing on his side and some risker investments paid off, but sometimes you make your own luck as well.  I know others don’t feel the same and have written so.  That’s fine because everyone is entitled to their own opinion. 

Overall, I’m happy for Derek because he had a dream, saw it fulfilled and then some.  Investment timing, luck, skill or otherwise, he’s a fortunate guy. 

I’m glad I got the chance to chat with Derek for almost a couple of hours a few weeks back.  Here’s what he had to say in Part 1 of My Own Advisor interview.  I hope you enjoy the read.

*     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *

My Own Advisor:  Thanks again for the interview Derek. It’s a busy time of year for everyone and I’m glad you got back in touch with me. It’s great to finally chat with you – enough email already!

Well, onto my questions.  Ready?

Derek:  Fire away Mark.

My Own Advisor:  Youve just released the latest book in your Stop Working series entitled The Idiot Millionaire: You Can Become Wealthy! What inspired you to write this book?


Derek:  To be honest, it was largely because of the 2008-2009 economic downturn. Because my personal situation had changed since I originally left the rat race at 34, (I was earning an income from other sources such as book sales, etc), I wanted to switch my portfolio to higher growing dividend-payers as this would save me tax and generate better returns over the long-term. BUT I wasnt as smart as I thought I was; hoping to sell my stocks at one price and trying to get back in at a lower price. In some cases, it worked. I bought businesses like JNJ, Shoppers Drug Mart and Phillip Morris at reasonable prices. For other businesses, it didnt work. For example, I waited too long for Canadian bank stocks. I missed the bottom and their subsequent run ups in price. Admittedly I missed that boat. I would buy some if prices to crept lower. I guess the title of my book really applies to me, kind of tongue-in-cheek.


My Own Advisor:  What makes this book unique in your Stop Working series?

Derek:  More so than any of my previous books, this one discusses a companys competitive advantage. I describe what I mean by this and how investors would do well to invest in those companies that have it and it also offers a list of those companies.


There are many companies out there that are worth owning, companies that pay dividends but they do not have any economic moat around them. This is important because ideally you want to buy companies that not only pay dividends, but that increase their dividends over time and also have great growth opportunities because of their advantaged products and services. My new book includes a pretty good list of these companies in Canada and the U.S. In the U.S. for example, Coca-Cola quickly comes to mind. In Canada, Enbridge.

My Own Advisor:  Switching gears a bit, tell me about your investment strategy. Still a dividend investor?


Derek:  Absolutely, but my approach or maybe should I say my focus has changed. Before I was more focused on higher yields for income generation, maybe slower-growing stuff but now my needs have changed. I mean the books generate income which was an unexpected surprise (because being an author or a writer is not usually the path to riches). Really though, Im fortunate to have some other income streams with no debt and so things are different for me at 40 than 34 when I wrote Stop Working (Heres How You Can Too!). Geez, that was six years ago. Im now more focused on companies that have their moats and good long-term growth prospects. I try to explain that in plain language in the new book.


Also, the reality is many folks dont retire from the workforce at 34, or even 40 or 50. They are working their way towards retirement bit by bit and hopefully this book will provide them with a more complete list of companies to help them out.

My Own Advisor:  A short time ago, when the market was falling (in 2008-2009) you sold all your dividend payers. I read a few articles about that. You took some heat. Can you walk us through that decision?

Derek:  I was an idiot but at that time, I sold my shares in early February 2009, I thought I could get back in later and at cheaper prices. Turns out I did and I didnt as I told you before. I managed to buy a lot of stocks much more cheaply but a large part of this was luck. I benefitted from put-option premiums and the incredible strength of the Canadian dollar. After I sold my stocks, I remember humming and hawing for a couple of weeks – should I say anything to the media? The books encouraged folks to do the opposite; buy and hold dividend-payers for income. I didnt want to be hypocritical but I can see why some people were a little put off, you know what I mean? In the end, my approach did save me money and I came out ahead but not on everything; I missed the boat on those Canadian bank stocks and some other companies I would like to own.


The book (The Idiot Millionaire) actually includes some of this stuff and Ive got some details in there about my prices when I got back in.


My Own Advisor:  Made any recent purchases?


Derek – Yeah, I bought Strayer Inc (a for-profit university) at a pretty reasonable price. It just made sense with our Canadian dollar being so high and the recent stock price weakness due to pending potential changes to loans for students. Im very comfortable with this holding but I realize there are potential risks. The stock price had dropped from over $250 earlier this year to under $140 where I bought it. This is even cheaper than at the March 2009 low of $159 and the Canadian dollar is much stronger now, so the stock price is actually 30% below the March 2009 bear market low (in Canadian dollar terms).


My Own Advisor:  Something more fun now. Whats on your Christmas list for 2010?


Derek:  Well with five kids in house, Christmas is really for them, not me. Ive never been one to covet stuff, Im not materialistic. I finally got a GPS this summer for our trip out West and Ive got a laptop computer. During our trip, once the kids were in bed and all the chatter had stopped for the day, I pulled out my laptop and wrote a couple of pages (for the new book). Honestly, Im a cheap guy. If a burglar came to my house, he would quickly leave in disgust as my material possessions are not really worth stealing (except perhaps for my Sienna minivan). When I look at stuff, I always ask myself, is this really going to add any value to my life? If the answer is no, I dont buy it. I guess nothing Mark. I dont even own a cell phone. I guess I dont consider myself important enough to need one.


I had to laugh at this last response. I mean, with five kids, how can Christmas NOT be all about them?
 
It was great to chat with Derek.  He’s a bright and funny guy.  Foster’s fast track to early retirement through  savings and diligent investing in Canadian and U.S. dividend paying stocks may not appeal to everyone but I think it’s inspirational.  In the end, we’re all trying to achieve financial freedom and regardless if you’re a fan or a critic, learning something from Derek Foster can and should be done.  That doesn’t mean you need to follow his path or emulate what he did.  Knowledge is always different than the application, but learning what works and what doesn’t for you is important.  I’m trying to build my investment knowledge and application all the time because in my opinion, continuous improvement is critical to success. 
 
In Part 2 of my interview, you’ll hear more from Derek about his portfolio allocation and his stock market predictions for 2011.  Stay tuned for that blogpost after Christmas. 
 
I hope you enjoyed Part 1 and as always, I look forward to any comments!
 
Cheers,
Financial Cents

I dont know about you, but applying for a mortgage can be frustrating and time-consuming. From our perspective, we were just another number applying for a bunch of numbers. Insert a great mortgage broker into the equation.

Heres a short (but not inclusive) list of great things a great mortgage broker can do you:

Give you customer focus – Unlike banking representatives, mortgage brokers are not tied to any one bank. Sure, they might have some favourites, but great brokers canvas the full field. Our guy was looking out for the customer (us), our terms, conditions and pre-payment options. He was working to find a product that fit our needs and situation, not his agenda. In brief, our mortgage situation is not ideal, we have a hefty penalty to pay if we break our existing mortgage and go with another lender within the next two years. (This is a reminder to look at the detailed print of your mortgage agreement before you purchase a new home .) In our case, a great opportunity arose and sometimes you simply cant pass those up regardless what the fine print says – life happens, choices need to be made and chances need to be taken. Back to my point, you can certainly make a strong argument that mortgage brokers work for themselves, not you, however without attention to personal detail, they wouldnt be in business. Our broker put our needs and requirements #1. He was always very responsive. He never said he didnt have time for us or needed to take another call.

Give you leverage The way I see it, using a mortgage broker to fund a mortgage, youre going to get more attention because the lender wants that broker to continue sending business their way. As an individual customer, were just a number apply for a bunch of numbers. In talking with our broker, I know if he sensed any run around from a prospective lender hed move on and our mortgage prospects would go with him.

Save you money No doubt mortgage brokers are compensated by the lenders they strike the deal with but a) that means you dont pay them and b) as long as the rate and conditions of the mortgage are better than what you could have obtained youre saving money. Potentially lots. Like I mentioned earlier, our broker worked hard to get us a good deal. He knew his stuff and actively monitored bond yields for us. We more than appreciated that because without our new great rate and its associated terms, we wouldnt be coming out ahead over our hefty mortgage penalty. Weve taken our lumps and learned from them. My advice? Dont take a five-year mortgage term if theres even a chance you might move within that term period. Sure, you can sometimes port your 5-year fixed term to your new home (it doesnt cost anything but the mortgage appraisal and sometimes a small discharge fee) but that wasnt ideal for us. In hindsight, we should have taken a shorter fixed term a few years back or instead, given historical research, a variable rate. Click here to read more about variable mortgage rates and how more often than not, you come out a winner over a fixed rate mortgage.

In closing, mortgage brokers can be a tremendous resource, if you have the right one. Were glad we worked with our guy. Actually, we still are.  He’s still checking in with us to ensure all the rebates we were able to take advantage of are coming our way, including one for the mortgage appraisal.

I know if I have mortgage question going forward, Ill drop him a line. Hell take my call, hell listen, hell provide good customer service and objective feedback. I dont mind sharing who we used because the experience was very positive.

Thanks very much Rob!!

Click here if you want his contact information.

Do you agree or disagree what a great mortgage broker can do for you?
Any positive or “other” experiences youd like to share?

Cheers,
Financial Cents